E14 · Growth worth buying
Synthetic practice, not company performance.
One decision
Which channel deserves the next experiment?
Run the exact query
WITH b AS (SELECT * FROM v_user_cohort WHERE ('all'='all' OR persona='all') AND ('all'='all' OR primary_workflow='all') AND ('all'='all' OR substr(signup_at,1,7)='all') AND date(signup_at)>='2026-05-01' AND date(signup_at)<'2026-10-01') SELECT channel,COUNT(*) eligible_users,SUM(activated7) activated_users,SUM(return28_41) later_users,SUM(acquisition_usd) allocated_spend,SUM(acquisition_usd)/NULLIF(SUM(activated7),0) usd_per_activated FROM b WHERE mature42=1 GROUP BY channel;
Download SQL · Result CSV · Metabase saved question
Chart and reading
Use mature, matched cost and activated-user cohorts; do not call this paying-account CAC.
Challenge your recommendation
Does channel intent or sales assistance explain activation?
Guardrails: Allocated synthetic spend; all users have 42-day follow-up here. Not CAC per paying account or causal channel performance.
Next evidence: Paying-account linkage, channel attribution, incremental acquisition test and retention.
PRD sections: 2, 14, 17. Open proposed PRD
Your spoken decision
State one takeaway, one caveat and one action in 30 seconds. Then stop.
Connect this finding
What this chart helps decide · Follow the connected decision · Canonical metric definitions
Optional model answer — try your own first
E14 · Growth worth buying
Decision: Which channel deserves the next experiment?
Readout: Use mature, matched cost and activated-user cohorts; do not call this paying-account CAC.
Actual query output (synthetic), first rows:
| channel | eligible_users | activated_users | later_users | allocated_spend | usd_per_activated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| partner | 73 | 3 | 11 | 3755.97 | 1251.99 |
| sales | 72 | 4 | 14 | 3948.94 | 987.235 |
| search | 79 | 5 | 9 | 3990.01 | 798.0020000000001 |
Model spoken answer: I would test a channel on useful activation and later value, not scale it on cheap signups alone.
Caveat/counterargument: Does channel intent or sales assistance explain activation? Allocated synthetic spend; all users have 42-day follow-up here. Not CAC per paying account or causal channel performance.
Next evidence: Paying-account linkage, channel attribution, incremental acquisition test and retention.
Deliberately left out: Unverified LTV/CAC benchmarks and a channel winner claim.